British Yaşam Tv'nin Mirror’dan aktardığı haberine göre 18,000 kişiyle yapılan çarpıcı anket, Başbakan Rishi Sunak’ın parti tarihindeki en kötü sonuç olan 80 milletvekili çıkaracağını öngörüyor. Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan ve Mel Stride’ın da aralarında bulunduğu on yedi kabine bakanı görevden alınacak.

Find Out Now ve Electoral Calculus tarafından yapılan anket, Keir Stamer’ın 254 sandalyelik benzeri görülmemiş bir zaferle İşçi Partisi’ne ezici bir çoğunluk kazandıracağını öngörüyor. Bu, Tony Blair’in 1997’deki tarihi zaferinden bile daha büyük. Ankete göre İşçi Partisi %42’lik destekle %22’lik Muhafazakarlara 20 puan fark atmış durumda.

Seçmen sağlık, ekonomi ve göçün ülkenin karşı karşıya olduğu en önemli konular olduğuna inandıklarını söyledi. Kamu hizmeti şirketlerinin kamulaştırılması ve daha fazla konut inşa edilmesi en popüler potansiyel seçim politikaları arasında yer aldı.

Anketörler geçtiğimiz üç hafta boyunca 18,151 kişiyle anket yaptı; bu sayı ortalama bir anketin dokuz katı. Daha sonra, 2017 ve 2019 seçimlerini başarılı bir şekilde tahmin eden MRP (çok seviyeli regresyon ve post-stratifikasyon) yöntemi, bunun bireysel seçim bölgelerinde ne anlama geleceğini tahmin etmek için kullanıldı.

Sonuçlar İşçi Partisi’nin 452 sandalye kazanacağını gösteriyor. Muhafazakârlar 2019’da elde ettikleri 285 sandalyenin 265’ini kaybederek sadece 80 sandalyeye sahip olacak. Görevden alınacak bakanlar arasında Claire Coutinho, Victoria Pentis, John Glen, Johnny Mercer ve Simon Hart yer alıyor.

Koltuklarını koruyacak ve bir sonraki Muhafazakar liderlik yarışına katılabilecek mevcut kabine bakanları ise James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat ve Michael Gove.

Ankete göre Liberal Demokratlar 53 sandalyeye ulaşacakları bir geri dönüşe doğru ilerliyor. SNP’nin hafif bir düşüşle 40 sandalyeye gerileyeceği, Yeşillerin ise iki sandalye kazanacağı tahmin ediliyor.

Electoral Calculus’un kurucusu Martin Baxter “Halk, Rishi Sunak yönetimindeki Muhafazakarlara karşı 1997’de John Major’a karşı olduğundan daha fazla hayal kırıklığına uğramış. İşçi Partisi’nin ezici bir üstünlük sağlaması giderek daha olası görünüyor ve İşçi Partisi seçmenleri kamulaştırma, kamu harcamalarının artırılması ve daha yüksek vergiler istiyor.” dedi

Baxter ayrıca “Son Muhafazakâr dönem sona ererken, bir sonraki seçim İngiliz siyaseti üzerinde sismik bir etki yaratabilir.” ifadelerini kullandı.

İngiltere‘de Genel Seçimlerin en geç önümüzdeki Ocak ayına kadar yapılması gerekiyor, ancak Sunak’ın Mayıs ya da Sonbaharda bir seçim yapılmasını beklediği belirtiliyor.

Find Out Now 24 Ocak ve 12 Şubat tarihleri arasında Britanya’da 18,151 yetişkinle online olarak görüşmüştür.

ANKETE GÖRE HANGİ PARTİ HANGİ BÖLGEYİ KAZANIYOR?

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